Gold is drowning
(Alexander Kuptsikevich – FxPro Financial Services Limited)
Gold collapsed more than 2.3% in trading on Tuesday, the second steepest daily drop a year after falling 2.5% on June 13. The sharp decline yesterday was due to a combination of several negative factors.
The most obvious factor is the sharp rise in the Dollar on forex, where the DXY index (a basket of the world’s six most popular currencies) has renewed its highs over the last twenty years. Gold often acts as an “anti-dollar with leverage” for investors, so it was unsurprising to see such a market reaction yesterday. A second possible explanation is a bearish signal, the “death cross”. The 50-day Moving Average fell below the 200-day MA on Monday, but we saw a full-swing market reaction only after liquidity returned after the long weekend in the USA.
The third factor was the continuing sell-off in industrial metals and the drop in Silver due to the worsening global economic outlook. Silver dipped below $19 an ounce on Wednesday morning, the lowest since July 2020.
The price of Gold is now at its low since late last year. This position simultaneously shows us buyer strength and tremendous potential for a decline.
That said, the fundamental factors behind Gold’s weakness are still in place, from a sharp tightening of monetary policy to weak demand for Gold from central banks and investors whose spending has increased significantly in recent months.
A critical intermediate stage in the Gold price decline looks to be the $1730 area, where a 61.8% correction from the 2018-2020 rally, from where Gold gets good demand from last August to September, is taking place.
A double top is forming on the long-term Gold charts, showing the inability of bulls to consolidate the price above $2000/oz the last cycle. A ‘double top’ pattern would form with consolidation below $1700, the March local lows. The final downside target in case of a double top could be the $1300 area, which could take up to six quarters to reach.
Currency market: The week and weekly trade results
(Brian Twomey – Brian’s Investment)
If trades fail to achieve targets or trades extremely close to final destination reveals vitally important commentary to market prices and positions. Market prices were born and created to achieved targets. No other choice exists to a market price. Imagine if a market price failed to move and remained stuck at one price all trading day. Its impossible in our new modern day unless designed by the cental bank such as was the order in the 1960’s.
The week trade results
XAU/USD targets 1857 then shorts to 1759. Highs 1.1814, Lows 1.1760.
XAU/EUR targets 1766 then 1698. Actual 1755.71, lows 1720.32.
CAD/JPY short 105.40 and 53 targets 103.24. Actual 106.12, 103.36. Few extra 59 pips to add 1 lot on a free money market gift.
USD/JPY targets 133.84 on a break of 134.59 from short 135.65 and 135.76. Highs 136.35, lows 135.01. See 60 pips miss and same as CAD/JPY. Extra lot added the 60 pips for extra, free money, market gift.
10 Tear Yield targets 3.38 then 2.66. Actual 2.97 Vs 2.78. Doing nothing and failed at targets. Speaks volumes.
DXY achieved overbought at 106.00’s, now short to target 103.00’s.
AUD/JPY 91.99 breaks lower. Lows 91.51 or 58 pips.
NZD/JPY 83.56, lows 82.99 or 57 pips.
EUR/JPY 138.75. Lows 138.23 or 52 pips.
GBP/JPY 160.62. Lows 160.87. Held, now do or die.
SPX 3841, Lows 3742 and bottoms 3600’s.
Brent 114.28 above and 113.12 below. Highs 114, lows 101.17.
WTI 109.00’s Vs 107.00’s. Highs 111.00’s, lows 97.00.
WTI and Brent entered problem territory about 1 week ago.
EUR/USD targets 1.0599 from 1.0384 and 1.0377. Highs 1.0460, lows 1.0219. Long entry, 1.0384 and 1.0377. Same story as last week: add 1 lot.
EUR/USD problem status is also found in price trading overbought to overbought or oversold to oversold. EUR earns the designation.
Best trades yesterday was actually wide range currencies: EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD. While we wait for EUR/USD, nothing was lost to overall profits.