XAGUSD: Shortly we may see a rise in the reactionary wave (X)
(Jing Ren – Orbex)
The XAGUSD pair, as in previous trading weeks, seems to be forming a correction wave b of the cycle degree, which is part of a large zigzag.
Apparently, correction b is a primary triple zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ. The first four parts of it have already been fully completed, now we see the construction of the last wave Ⓩ.
Most likely, the wave Ⓩ will be an intermediate triple zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X)-(Z). It seems that the formation of the actionary intermediate wave (Y) has come to an end, it has taken the form of a double zigzag W-X-Y. Thus, growth could begin in the intermediate intervening wave (X).
It can be assumed that the wave (X) will end in the form of a minor double zigzag near 21.259. At that level, it will be at 38.2% along the Fibonacci lines of sub-wave (Y).
Alternatively, it is assumed that the bearish primary wave Ⓩ may end in the form of a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y).
Most likely, the market is now in the final part of the actionary wave (Y), or rather in its final minor sub-wave C.
Perhaps wave C will end in the form of an impulse consisting of minute sub-waves.
To end this impulse, a final sub-wave is needed. The end of this impulse is possible near 15.252. At that level, primary wave Ⓩ will be at 161.8% of actionary wave Ⓨ.
XAUUSD outlook: Gold looks for fresh direction signals from Fed
(Slobodan Drvenica – Windsor Brokers)
Spot gold is holding within a tight range ahead of week’s key event – Fed rate decision that is expected to influence metal’s near-term outlook.
The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by 0.75% for the second time, following June’s 75 basis points hike, in attempts to put raging inflation under control, but also trying to avoid triggering a recession.
Gold price would hold ground or slide on 0.75% hike, as higher interest rates make the dollar more attractive, however investors focus on Fed Chair Powell’s comments in the press conference following the rate decision, to get more clues about the central bank’s steps in the near future.
This will be crucial for metal’s short term direction, as hawkish signals would inflate dollar and increase pressure on gold that would result in renewed attempt through psychological $1700 support and retest of key Fibo support at $1681 (38.2% retracement of larger $1046/$2074 uptrend) cracked on July 21.
On the other side, Fed turned its focus fully on inflation and any signs that inflation is peaking, would soften the central bank’s tone about the future actions that would turn overall stance dovish and offer fresh support to the bullion.
Initial support lays at $1710 (daily Tenkan-sen) followed by pivots at $1700 (psychological) and $1681 (Fibo), clear break of which would risk drop towards $1600 (psychological) and $1560/44 (50% of $1046/$2074 / monthly cloud top).
On the other side, acceleration through pivotal barriers at $1756 (Fibo 38.2% of $1879/$1680) and $1764 (daily Kijun-sen) would sideline downside risk and shift near-term focus to the upside.
Res: 1739; 1756; 1764; 1786.
Sup: 1710; 1700; 1681; 1658.