(Jing Ren – Orbex)
USD/CAD breaks resistance
The Canadian dollar softened as June’s retail sales decelerated. The pair previously came under pressure at 1.2980. A close above this supply zone equally a daily resistance would flush the remaining selling interest out and open the door for a sustained rebound. The greenback has secured support over 1.2880, which is a sign of commitment from the buy side. 1.3100 under July’s peak is the next target should the rally gain traction. Its breach could resume the uptrend in the medium-term. 1.2930 is the closest support.
GBP/JPY seeks support
The pound retreats as recession fears take a foothold in the UK. The latest rebound has met stiff selling pressure at the daily resistance (163.50) which also sits on the 30-day moving average. This failure to achieve a new high suggests that the path of least resistance would be down. 161.60 is a support after intraday buyers gave up their gains at 162.30. Further down, 160.30 is a key level to keep the rebound intact. Its breach could make Sterling vulnerable to a new round of sell-off below 159.50.
XAG/USD grinds critical floor
Silver plunges as the US dollar recovers across the board. On the daily chart, the price action reversed its course at the support-turned-resistance (20.80). A drop below previous lows at 19.60 suggested a lack of follow-up interest in the metal and triggered a wave of profit-taking. 18.80 at the base of last month’s bullish breakout is an important level to see whether there are still buyers left. Otherwise, the bears might push below 18.20. As the RSI dips into oversold territory, 19.50 is a fresh resistance in case of a bounce.
The dollar outpaced peers despite the relative yield disadvantage
(KBC Market Research Desk – KBC Bank)
The core bond sell off last week lasted until the US close. Double digit UK inflation numbers, US retail resilience, hawkish messages from the RBNZ & Norges Bank and finally an avalanche of Fed comments all contributed to refocus on inflation dynamics and front-loaded tightening by central banks. It broke ranks with the core bond/stock market comeback since mid-June when the onus was on recessionary fears which would keep central banks sidelined sooner. UK gilts underperform German Bunds who in their turn underperformed US Treasuries. On a weekly basis, UK yields added 17.7 bps (30-yr) to 45.8 bps (2-yr) in a bear flattening move. German yields added 16.9 bps (30-yr) to 28.8 bps (3-yr) with the curve moving in similar fashion. From a technical point of view, longer-term yields broke out of their corrective downward trend channels. The US yield curve turned less inverse with weekly changes varying between +14.8 bps (7-yr) and -1.3 bps (2-yr). European and US stock markets on Friday again fell prey to the ferocity of the core bond sell-off with main indices losing 1% to 2%. The dollar outpaced peers despite the relative yield disadvantage. The more difficult risk context is one explanation. A second one is in the breakdown of the yield surge. Especially in Europe, higher inflation expectations made a larger contribution compared to real yields. Technically, EUR/USD’s failure to regain first resistance around 1.0350 was already a bad omen for the pair which closed the week at 1.0037. Sterling lost out against the euro given the global context with the pair exiting the corrective downward trend channel since mid-June and closing the week at 0.8485. Smaller, less liquid currencies (CEE, down under, SEK) faced a tough week with the commodity-related NOK and CAD being the only ones to more or less keep level with the euro (thus still losing out against USD). USD/JPY broke above 135.58 resistance, returning above 137.
This morning’s PBOC easing (see below) doesn’t really influence global markets. Local stock indices slightly outperform (+0.5%) while CNY drops to a new YTD low at 6.83. Today’s eco calendar only contains some second-tier eco releases, but gets more exiting later on. EMU August PMI’s (tomorrow), Minutes of the previous ECB Meeting (Thursday) and US PCE deflators (Friday) are scheduled for release. This week’s main talking point will be the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium with Fed Chair Powell giving the key note speech on the economic outlook on Friday. We expect last week’s trends to last into that speech as markets reposition towards more hawkish central banks. We finally retain comments by German Bundesbank Nagel who warned for double digit German inflation in Autumn with inflation likely averaging more than 6% next year. It’s a strong nod towards continuing policy normalization in steps of 50 bps, as suggested by ECB Schnabel last week.
At the monthly fixing, the PBOC this morning lowered the 1-year loan prime rate by 5 bps to 3.65%. The 5 year LPR was set 15 bps lower at 4.30%. The PBOC action follows other measures from the Chinese central bank last week to support the ailing property sector. The move also aims to revive credit flows to the broader economy as activity still struggles to rebound from Covid-lockdowns and as uncertainty on the local real estate sector is weighing on consumers’ moral. The yuan this morning weakens further against the dollar with USD/CNY trading near 6.827.
In an interview with Bloomberg, RBNZ deputy governor Hawkesby indicated that the central bank wants the get the OCR cash policy rate comfortably above neutral in order to slow the economy and cool price pressures. The RBNZ last week raised its policy rate from 2.5% to 3.0%. Hawkesby assessed that the economy has been more resilient than expected. The central bank was deliberately ambiguous as it forecasted a potential 4.1% peak for the policy rate. There is a risk that the policy rate will have to be raised to 4.25%. According to Hawkesby, the RBNZ hasn’t settled on a new estimate for what the neutral policy rate might be, but the MPC talked about a range of 2% to 3% which is higher than a previous estimate of 2.0%.