US oil: Intermediate correction completion hints at a price rise in a new impulse
(Jing Ren – Orbex)
USOIL suggests the development of the final part of the global impulse wave a of the cycle degree.
The 1H timeframe shows the markup of the final primary wave ⑤, which takes the form of an intermediate impulse.
An intermediate correction (4) in the form of a minor double zigzag may have been completed recently. Thus, in the last section of the chart, we see that the price has started to rise in the intermediate wave (5). It is assumed that the intermediate wave (5) will take the form of a standard impulse.
The end of the specified pattern is possible near 129.59. At that level, wave (5) will be at the 76.4% Fibonacci extension of impulse (3).
However, the construction of the intermediate correction (4) can be continued. Thus, let’s consider the second scenario. Perhaps it will have the form of a triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z.
The minor sub-waves W-X-Y-X look complete. Thus, in the near future, the downward movement is expected to continue in the actionary wave Z, which can be completed in the form of a minute triple zigzag ⓦ-ⓧ-ⓨ-ⓧ-ⓩ.
The price of oil may fall to the level of 66.17.
After reaching this level, the market is expected to grow above the maximum – 123.72.
EUR/USD: Strong reactions yes …trend change difficult for now
(Vasilis Tsaprounis – TopFX)
After a real choppy trading day yesterday with a change of direction several times the common European currency is moving higher in the wake of yesterday’s ECB decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points.
After initially being pressured and found itself a bit above the 0,9900 level very soon the pair changed direction again with strong upward momentum with result to trade this morning at the 1,01 levels awaiting the ECB’s president Christine Lagarde speech.
As we have repeatedly noted we should not underestimate the defense ability of the European currency and the fact that the exchange rate at the levels of 1/1 and below is indeed a low level and is not pleasant for the officials of the European Central Bank.
Our strategies to buy the pair on the dips turned out to be the most appropriate.
As we mentioned yesterday, the decision of the European Central Bank certainly narrows the gap between the two main central banks in terms of interest rates, but we will have to wait for the corresponding move from the Fed.
I am not expect some major surprises in today’s speech by President Lagarde and the possibility that the euro will lose some of its recent gains is high.
A profit taking behavior from yesterday’s and today’s upward movement of the euro is considered a good idea.
EUR/USD Forecast: Next recovery target aligns at 1.0160
(Eren Sengezer – FXStreet)
– EUR/USD has gathered bullish momentum following Thursday’s volatile session.
– Hawkish ECB commentary and improving risk mood help euro gather strength.
– The pair could extend its rebound if it manages to clear 1.0100.
EUR/USD has turned north during the Asian trading hours and climbed to its highest level in three weeks above 1.0100. The near-term technical outlook points to a bullish shift and the pair could target 1.0160 next if it continues to hold above 1.0100.
Following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to hike the policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) on Thursday, the euro managed to stay resilient against its rivals. During the press conference, however, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that 75 bps hikes were not going to be the norm in future decisions and added that it was premature to look at quantitative tightening as a possible policy action.
Although the shared currency struggled to find demand following Lagarde’s relatively cautious remarks, the positive shift witnessed in risk sentiment and hawkish comments from ECB officials provided a boost to the currency.
ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir said Klaas Knot said that their priority was policy normalization and added that they had no other option than to continue with resolute rate hikes. Similarly, policymaker Klaas Knot noted that a 75 bps rate hike was a powerful signal but added that it needs to be followed with more policy steps.
In the absence of high-impact macroeconomic data releases, the risk perception could impact the market action ahead of the weekend.
US stock index futures are up between 0.7% and 1% during the European session, pointing to a positive Wall Street opening. In case US stocks surge higher, the dollar could face additional selling pressure and help EUR/USD to preserve its bullish momentum.
Before the Fed goes into the blackout period, market participants will pay close attention to speeches by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Kansas City Fed President Esther George. It’s worth noting, however, that markets are pricing in an 86% probability of a 75 bps rate hike in September, suggesting that the dollar is unlikely to gather strength even if policymakers deliver hawkish remarks.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart climbed above 60, confirming the bullish shift in the short-term outlook. At the time of press, EUR/USD was trading a couple of pips above 1.0100, where the 200-period SMA is located. In case the pair starts using that level as support, it could target 1.0160 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.0200 (psychological level).
On the other hand, buyers could stay on the sidelines if EUR/USD fails to hold above 1.0100. In that scenario, 1.0050 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) could be seen as interim support ahead of 1.0000 (psychological level, 100-period SMA)
