Will the oil quotes continue to increase?
(Dmitry Lukashov – IFC Markets)
WTI technical analysis summary
Buy Stop։ Above 94,5.
Stop Loss: Below 84.
WTI chart analysis
On the daily timeframe, OIL: D1 went up from the triangle. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if OIL: D1 rises above the last up fractal: 94.5. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit is possible below the Parabolic signal and the last lower fractal: 84. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a trade, can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (84) without activating the order (94.5), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental analysis of commodities – WTI
OPEC+ may cut production if Iran increases oil production. Will the OIL quotes continue to increase?
Opinion was expressed by Abdulaziz bin Salman (Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia) regarding the information about a possible mitigation of Iran’s demands (position) during negotiations with Western countries on the “nuclear deal”. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for September 5, 2022. It should be noted that OPEC+ production in July was already 2.89 million barrels per day (bpd) less than previously approved quotas. This was mainly due to Western economic sanctions against Russia. A significant factor in the rise in oil prices may be its use for heating and power generation in European countries against the backdrop of rising natural gas prices on August 22, 2022 to $3,000 per thousand cubic meters (according to the Title Transfer Facility).
AUD/USD: Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend
(Jason Sen – DayTradeIdeas.co.uk)
AUDUSD beat first resistance at 6915/25 but made a high for the day exactly at strong resistance at 6960/70.
NZDUSD shorts at resistance at 6300/20 worked perfectly with a high on Thursday & a collapse to my 6160/50 target.
AUDJPY edges slowly higher to first resistance at 9500/20. Shorts need stops above 9540.
Remember when support is broken it usually acts as resistance & vice-versa.
AUDUSD shorts at strong resistance at 6960/70 hit my first target of 6920/10 as we look for 6865/55, perhaps as far as 6800/6780 this week. Further losses are certainly possible to 6730/20 & even the July low at 6690/80.
Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with strong resistance at 6960/70. Shorts need stops above 6990. A break higher however meets strong resistance at 7030/50. Shorts need stops above 7070.
NZDUSD shorts at first resistance at 6215/25 have been held as we reverse from 6244 (lucky!!). Target is 6160/50. On further losses look for 6110/00 before a retest of the July low at 6070/60.
First resistance at 6215/25. Shorts need stops above 6250. Strong resistance at 6290/6310. Shorts need stops above 6325.
AUDJPY hit first resistance at 9500/20. Shorts need stops above 9540. A break higher can target 9575, perhaps as far as 9660/80.
Shorts at 9500/20 target 9450/40 then 9420/10 for some profit taking.
Daily technical and trading outlook – USD/JPY
Trend daily chart
21 HR EMA
55 HR EMA
Trend hourly chart
Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI
14 HR DMI
Consolidation with upside bias
137.71 – Tue’s 1-month high
136.43 – Mon’s Asian high
137.23 – Last week’s high (Fri)
136.62 – Intra-day low (AUS)
136.35 – Hourly chart
135.82 – Tue’s low
USD/JPY – 136.92.. Although dlr edged marginally higher to a 1-month top of 137.71 at Tokyo open, price fall to 137.05 (Europe) on profit taking. Despite rebounding to 137.64 in NY, price tanked to 135.82 after weak U.S. PMI data.
On the bigger picture, dlr’s spectacular rally fm 2011 historic low at 75. 32 (Mar) due to co-ordinated CCY intervention by G7 central banks to weaken the yen in the aftermath of Japan’s earthquake and tsunami of Mar 2011 to as high as 125.86 (2015) confirms major low has been made. Although the pair fell back to 99 .00 in mid-2016 n swung broadly sideways until 2021, price rallied in tandem with U.S. yields to a 24-year peak of 139.39 in mid-Jul b4 retreating. Despite a sharp fall to a 7-week 130.41 trough on Aug 01, dlr’s subsequent gain to 137.23 last Fri signals pullback over n would bring re-test of 139.39 later this month, then twd 143.36 in Sep. Only below 130.41 risks stronger retracement twd 126.37.
Today, dlr’s 3-legged rise fm Aug’s 130.41 low to 137.71 suggests correct ion fm 2022 139.39 peak has ended n as said Tue’s top was accompanied with bearish divergences on hourly indicators, intra-day fall to 135.82 would bring consolidation b4 up. Abv 137.23 may head twd 137.71, break, 138.35/40 later this week.