Strong NFP data? a good reason for break 0.9900

(Vasilis Tsaprounis – TopFX)

The common European currency for once again had a strong reaction and has returned close to the level of 1/1 after yesterday’s dip just above to 0.9900 level.

The pair’s last pattern of post-dive reactions was confirmed once again. As we have mentioned several times the collapse of the European Currency will not be an easy task as prices are already quite low and the most important reasons that have led to these prices are already known and are slowly being digested by the market. Therefore any variation in the data is perceived with particular sensitivity by the market looking for direction.

The pair over the past ten days has been trading in a range of about 200 points between levels 0.9900 – 1.0100 with a faithful pattern of reactions of the European currency after dips. But as is well known a limited range of fluctuation never lasts long and as the levels digest the chances of the range of fluctuation changing increases.

Today’s announcement of new jobs in the US economy is likely to cause these levels to change. Analysts expect a curb on new jobs with a number near to 300k after the stunning figure of 528K last month that allowed Fed to maintain the aggressive rhetoric for interest rates.

As it is perceived any significant deviation from the expected will create intense volatility and a possible much higher number perhaps will be the reason to see the pair move to the 0,9900 level again with increased possibility this time to downward break it.

On the contrary, a disappointing number will intensify the reflection on the future of the US economy and whether the fed will maintain the flexibility to exercise an aggressive policy on interest rate increases.

For this reason we maintain a wait-and-see attitude until the announcement . But i am not see at the moment any particular reason to vary the strategy of the last weeks , buying the euro on dips .

GBP/USD outlook: Bears are taking a breather ahead of attack at 2020 low

(Slobodan Drvenica – Windsor Brokers)

Cable is consolidating above new multi-month low, posted on Thursday after a brief probe below 1.15 handle, following an uninterrupted bear-run in past five days.

The pair is also on track for the third consecutive weekly loss, with risk aversion and strong dollar, keeping the pound in strong defensive mode.

Consolidation or brief bounce on oversold daily studies and fading bearish momentum could be expected in the near-term, with upticks to stay below falling 10DMA (1.1703) and keep bears intact for final push towards key support at 1.1410 (2020 low).

Res: 1.1569; 1.1634; 1.1703; 1.1760.
Sup: 1.1498; 1.1430; 1.1410; 1.1352.

Could EUR/USD drop below 0.99?

(AAATrade Team)

Looking at EURUSD’s chart, we can see that it is has been in a downward trend and it keeps dropping below its support level of 1. Currently it is traded at the rate of around 0.9970 and today if it will not be able to recover above the rate of 1, then we could see it testing its 52W low, which is below 0.99.