Oil Outlook – Weekly waves: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Bitcoin

Oil outlook: Oil loses traction on China’s COVID-19 measures, weak economic data

(Slobodan Drvenica – Windsor Brokers)

WTI oil 

WTI oil starts week in red, dropping 2.1% in early Monday’s trading, as sentiment was soured by weak China’s manufacturing data and widening Covid restrictions, threatening of slower demand from the world’s second largest economy and world’s biggest oil importer.

Concerns about global economic slowdown on soaring inflation and aggressive rate hikes by world’s major central banks, add to negative signals.

Fresh weakness emerges after a double failure at pivotal Fibo barrier at $88.90 (61.8% of $93.60/$81.29), which guards psychological $90 barrier, but still lacking stronger bearish signals, which could be expected on violation of supports at $85.91 (daily cloud base) and $85.74 (daily Tenkan-sen).

Daily studies are mixed, as momentum is heading north but still in the negative territory, while MA’s are in bullish setup.

Failure to clear pivotal supports at $85.91/74 would keep near-term action within a consolidative range and bias with bulls, while sustained break above $90 remains a trigger for further advance.

Bearish scenario sees break of $85.91/74 pivots as a trigger for deeper fall, which could target $83.00 zone.

Focus will remain on economic data, which are nowadays oil’s key drivers.

Res: 88.90; 89.77; 90.00; 90.69.
Sup: 86.66; 85.91; 85.74; 85.05.

Weekly waves: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Bitcoin

(Chris Svorcik – Elite CurrenSea)

• Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD 4 hour chart, the GBP/USD 4 hour chart, and the Bitcoin daily chart.
• The GBP/USD is completing a bullish 5 wave pattern upwards (green). It seems to be losing its bullish momentum at the 38.2% Fib resistance (purple).
• Bitcoin (BTC/USD) was unable to break below the previous bottoms and support zone (green box). It made a bullish breakout above the resistance trend line (dotted orange).

EUR/USD bearish ABC after bullish rally

The EUR/USD made a bullish breakout rather than reaching the previous bottom last week as our analysis expected:

1. The EUR/USD bullish breakout above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) sparked a bullish rally.
2. This indicated the end of the wave B (green) and the start of the wave C (green).
3. The bullish ABC (green) has probably completed a wave A (pink) of a larger ABC correction (pink) in wave 4.
4. The wave A (pink) seems completed and the current bearish price swing is expected to start the wave A (green) within wave B (pink).
5. The main target for wave A (green) is the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
6. Later on, price action could drop lower to the deeper Fibonacci levels.

Bitcoin breaks north of key resistance trend line

1. BTC/USD made a bullish breakout above the resistance trend line (dotted orange).
2. This breakout confirms the continuation of wave 4 (pink).
3. A bullish ABC (green) pattern is unfolding within that wave 4 (pink).
4. The breakout marks the end of wave B (green) and the start of wave C (green).
5. The wave C (green) could test the previous top and 23.6% Fibonacci level.
6. Price action could go as high as the 38.2% Fibonacci level within wave 4 (pink).
7. A larger bullish retracement, however, would make the bearish Elliott Wave analysis unlikely.

GBP/USD facing strong resistance at 38.2% Fib

1. The GBP/USD seems to be losing its bullish momentum at the 38.2% Fib resistance (purple).
2. A last push upward (blue arrow) could complete the rising wedge chart pattern.
3. A bearish breakout (red arrow) below the support (green) line marks the end of the wave 5 (green) of wave A (pink) and the start of the bearish ABC (green) in wave B (pink).
4. The bearish wave A (green) should reach the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
5. The bearish wave C (green) should reach the 50-61.8% Fibonacci level of lower.
6. Once the ABC (green) is completed in wave B (pink), a bullish wave C (pink) should take price action higher again in a larger wave 4.

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method simple wave analysis and trading. For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Read Markets uncertain ahead of Fed decision and NFP this week

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