(Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA – HYCM)
You may have heard that gold tends to be strong around the end of the year. So, how to choose a great time of seasonal strength for gold?
With Seasonax tool you can identify a strong seasonal pattern. Choose which date to start and use the de-trend button to make it easier to recognize true seasonal patterns. What does visually look promising?
Looking at the period of December 19 – 31, we can see that over the last 15 years Gold has gained over 85% of the time and made a 1.57% return on average.
Major trade risks: If the USD strengthens and real yields rise that could weaken gold. So an aggressive expectation for US rate hikes can invalidate this outlook.
USD/JPY outlook: The Yen surges after BOJ’s surprise decision
(Slobodan Drvenica – Windsor Brokers)
The USDJPY was sharply lower in the Asian / early European session on Tuesday (down around 3.3%) after the Bank of Japan left its interest rates unchanged but shocked markets with the decision to widen the 10-yr bond yield movement from 25 basis points move either side, to 50 basis points.
The central bank expects its decision to allow more rise in long-term interest rates and to partially ease the costs of extended monetary stimulus.
The BoJ expects the latest measures to boost the monetary policy framework and highlighted that it is not the beginning of exiting easy policy.
Investors bought the yen after BoJ’s decision, sending the currency to the highest levels in 4 ½ months against the US dollar.
Fresh acceleration lower weakened the technical structure on a daily chart, as the pair eventually broke below 200DMA (135.72) which stayed below the price since late Feb 2021 and contained the recent attacks on Dec 2, 3, and 13,14.
Fresh bears also broke below the former low at 133.62 (Dec 2), signaling a continuation of a larger downtrend from 151.94 (Oct 21 peak, the highest since July 1990).
Negative momentum is gaining strength and moving averages turned to a full bearish setup on the daily chart, supporting the action, but RSI is near the border of oversold territory, suggesting that bears may face headwinds on approach to key supports at 130.39/00 (Aug 2 trough / psychological).
A close below 133.62 is needed to confirm a bearish stance and keep the focus on the downside, with the selling upticks strategy favored while the action stays below 200DMA.
Res: 133.62; 134.51; 135.72; 136.22.
Sup: 132.09; 131.88; 130.80; 130.39.
Read GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling needs to reclaim 1.2200 to turn bullish
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