(Brad Alexander – FX Large Limited)
Last Thursday was what we call a “Risk On!” Day with investors rushing into the stock markets.
Price action on the NASDAQ, for example, broke the upper trend line but has a long way to go before it reaches the 200-day moving average.
All the other US Indices like the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Russell 2000 showed similar levels of investment.
Of course, when investors buy US stocks, they need to convert their cash which caused a fall in the USD Index.
Therefore, we see a huge fall in the value of the USD and it shows on the USD Index.
Price Action opened with a gap this morning and it is heading down again.
Speaking of gaps; the gap we reported last week on Natural Gas has been filled.
Price action fell to the lower trend line and opened again with a gap.
Analysts feel that prices could fall further as a mild winter has been predicted for Northern Europe.
In last week’s Market Blast Technicals we noted that price action on Gold had bounced off the upper trend line.
However, with the fall of the USD, the price of Gold rose into the high 1700s.
In fact, we had every major pair showing USD weakness.
AUDUSD: The market may collapse to the previous low
In the long term, AUDUSD seems to be forming a bearish triple zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ, where the primary wave Ⓩ is a simple zigzag (A)-(B)-(C). The intermediate wave (B) of this zigzag took the form of a simple bullish zigzag A-B-C.
At the moment, an impulse wave (C) is being formed, which consists of minor sub-waves 1-2-3-4-5. Minor wave 3 consists of five-minute sub-waves.
Most likely, the minor correction wave 4 was completed not so long ago, so the market may continue to move down in impulse wave 5.
The currency is expected to decline to the previous low of 0.617, marked by impulse 3.
An alternative scenario shows that the correction wave 4, which is currently being formed, has not yet been fully completed. This wave may take the form of a longer one than in the main version.
Bulls could build only two parts of correction 4, that is, we could see fully formed sub-waves ⓦ-ⓧ, the sub-wave ⓨ is still being built but is already close to its completion.
In the near future, the market may grow to 0.681. At that level, corrective wave 4 will be at 76.4% along the Fibonacci lines of the previous bearish impulse 3. Then, after the full completion of wave 4, we can expect a decline in minor wave 5.
Read The pound pulls back from its highest level since August
Related posts:
AUDUSD dives near fresh 6-week low, USD/CHF rally may not be over yet [Video]
AUDUSD pauses post-FOMC rally, but bulls may persist
Australian dollar rises to 2-month high
AUDUSD Forecast: Focus on Australian wages
Forex Forecast: EUR/JPY, GBP/USD
GBPUSD Forecast: Pound looks indecisive after hot UK inflation data
Aussie yawns after Capex dips
AUDUSD flirts with July’s low, WTI futures retreat to 7-month low [Video]
