Gold Price Forecast

Gold Price Forecast: Lower lows hint at more pain for the bright metal

(Valeria Bednarik – FXStreet)

XAUUSD Current price: $1,738.01

Central banks’ hawkishness set the tone at the beginning of the week.
Stock markets trade in the red but off their early lows.
XAUUSD is bearish in the near term and near a critical Fibonacci support level.

Following an early dip to $1,720.28 a troy ounce, spot gold is marginally higher for the day. The dollar surged at the weekly opening as investors continued to price in US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell’s words on Friday. Speaking at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Powell made it clear that the central bank is completely focused on taming inflation, regardless of the economic pain the monetary policies may generate.

On Monday, stock markets edged lower, maintaining the red despite bouncing from their intraday lows. On the other hand, surprisingly hawkish European Central Bank policymakers sent government bond yields higher throughout the European session. Also speaking at Jackson Hole, some ECB members hinted at a tighter monetary policy in the Union.

Gold price short-term technical outlook

The dollar is trying to come back, but mostly weaker across the FX board. The daily chart for the XAUUSD pair hints at persistent bearish strength. The metal briefly pierced a strong static support level at $1,729.25, the 61.8% retracement of the latest daily run, and trades below the immediate Fibonacci resistance at $1,744.20. Meanwhile, gold remains below all of its moving averages while technical indicators consolidate within negative levels, indicating the absence of buying strength.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk is skewed to the downside. Gold met sellers at around a mildly bearish 20 SMA, which converges with the aforementioned Fibonacci resistance while heading south below the longer ones. At the same time, technical indicators resumed their declines within negative territory after correcting oversold conditions reached earlier in the day.

Support levels: 1,729.25 1,714.70 1,697.80

Resistance levels: 1,744.20 1,759.20 1,772.40

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