GBPUSD Forecast: Next line of defense aligns at 1.1825

(Eren Sengezer – FXStreet)

– GBP/USD has extended its slide after having dropped below 1.1900.

– The pair faces static support level at 1.1825.

– Wall Street’s main indexes remain on track to open deep in negative territory.

Pressured by the broad-based dollar strength, GBP/USD has suffered heavy losses and dropped to its lowest level in a month below 1.1900. The pair stays on the backfoot on Friday and additional losses could be witnessed in case safe-haven flows continue to dominate the financial markets in the second half of the day. It’s worth noting, however, that the near-term technical outlook suggests that the pair could make a correction before the next leg lower.

The data from the US showed on Thursday that the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index improved significantly in August and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 250,0000, compared to the market expectation of 265,000. On a negative note, Existing Home Sales fell by 5.9% in July. The dollar struggled to make a decisive move in either direction with the initial reaction but hawkish comments from officials triggered an impressive rally in the US Dollar Index (DXY).

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that he was in favor of the Fed continuing to frontload rate hikes and added that he would prefer a 75 basis points increase at the September policy meeting. Additionally, “the markets have a lack of understanding but consumers understand that rates won’t go down right after they go up,” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CNN.

There won’t be any high-tier data releases from the US ahead of the weekend and the risk perception could impact the dollar’s valuation. As of writing, US stock index futures were down between 0.6% and 0.9%, suggesting that safe-haven flows could continue to support the dollar in the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The pair faces static support at 1.1825 ahead of 1.1800 (psychological level) and 1.1760 (July 14 low). On the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator dropped below 30, suggesting that the pair could stage a correction before extending its slide.

In case GBP/USD recovers, resistances are located at 1.1900 (psychological level), 1.1940 (static level) and 1.2000 (psychological level, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest uptrend).

Daily recommendations on major – USD/JPY

(AceTrader Team)

USD/JPY – 136.51

Dollar’s intra-day rally in tandem with U.S. yields to a 2-week high of 135.49 in New York suggests re-test of Aug’s 135.57 high would be forthcoming next, above would extend upmove from Aug’s 130.41 7-week trough at 130.41 towards 135.96 before prospect of decline later.

On the downside, only a daily close below 134.68 would prolong choppy swings and risk weakness towards 134.43, break would head to 133.92/97.

Data to be released on Friday

U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, Germany producer prices, U.K. PSNB GBP, PSNCR GBP, retail sales, Swiss industrial production, EU current account.
Canada retail sales.

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