Review Brokers
No Result
View All Result
Saturday, September 30, 2023
  • Login
  • Home
    • Forex Advertising
    • Economic Calendar
    • Contact Us
  • Forex Brokers
    • Best Broker 2023
  • Education
    • Forex Trading Strategies
    • Forex Trading Indicators
    • Forex/CFDs/Cryptos News
    • Promotional Content
  • Forex Promotions
    • Best Promotions
    • Affiliate Program
    • Forex No Deposit Bonus
    • Forex Demo Contest
    • Forex Rebate (Cashback)
    • Forex Live Contest
    • Forex Deposit Bonus
    • Other Promotions
  • Expert Advisors
    • Expert Advisors Price
  • Rebate Service
    • Terms and Conditions of Rebate Services
  • Home
    • Forex Advertising
    • Economic Calendar
    • Contact Us
  • Forex Brokers
    • Best Broker 2023
  • Education
    • Forex Trading Strategies
    • Forex Trading Indicators
    • Forex/CFDs/Cryptos News
    • Promotional Content
  • Forex Promotions
    • Best Promotions
    • Affiliate Program
    • Forex No Deposit Bonus
    • Forex Demo Contest
    • Forex Rebate (Cashback)
    • Forex Live Contest
    • Forex Deposit Bonus
    • Other Promotions
  • Expert Advisors
    • Expert Advisors Price
  • Rebate Service
    • Terms and Conditions of Rebate Services
No Result
View All Result
Review Brokers
No Result
View All Result

FX daily: Cheaper gasoline should help US confidence and the dollar

Admin by Admin
August 12, 2022
in Forex/CFDs/Cryptos News
0
MarketNews
0
SHARES
2
VIEWS

(ING Global Economics Team)

Softer-than-expected US price data this week has lifted risk assets around the world, especially in the emerging market space. The highlight of today’s relatively quiet session will be US August consumer sentiment data, which is expected to pick up after the big drop in gasoline prices. This should be good for US growth and the dollar.

USD: Rising consumer confidence should be good news all round

Softer-than-expected US July price data this week (both CPI and PPI) have been good news for risk assets around the world. Investors have read it as reducing the Fed‘s urgency to tighten policy. That said, Fed rhetoric has been consistent all week. Namely, the policy rate is heading toward 3.25/3.50% later this year (roughly priced by the markets) and then possibly 4% next year (not priced).

The latest US consumer sentiment readings from the University of Michigan – out today – will feed into this story. James Knightley looks for an upside surprise in consumer sentiment after US gasoline’s fall to $4 from $5/gallon over the last month. We also get fresh inflation expectations data. Here the 5-10 year expectations peaked at 3.10% earlier this summer, were 2.9% in July and today are expected to fall to 2.8%.

How will markets read the data? A drop in inflation expectations may suggest the Fed can be more relaxed on inflation. But there are no signs of that coming through in its rhetoric. Instead, the bigger impact may be the bounce in consumer sentiment, reduced fears of a 2023 recession, and the pricing out of some of the 50bp of easing expected in 2H23. This should be a dollar-positive development.

As we discussed yesterday, we like the dollar against the low yielders (euro and yen), but feel that declining levels of volatility will see renewed interest in the carry trade. Yesterday, we picked out long MXN/JPY as a pair that could rally in this environment. Mexico’s central bank Banxico did hike 75bp yesterday to 8.50% and even though it omitted language talking about ‘more forceful’ rate hikes in the future, we think Banxico will match the Fed hike-for-hike. 6.80 remains our target for MXN/JPY.

Heavily weighted to the low yielders, DXY should be able to edge a little higher today. A break above 105.50 would go a long way to stabilising it after the heavy losses suffered on Wednesday’s US CPI release. Chris Turner

EUR: Gas developments remain worrying

European industry must be watching with growing concern as European natural gas prices continue to edge higher. Higher costs are a given, but winter rationing probably remains the bigger threat. For FX markets, 2022 has been the year of watching terms of trade developments – the price of exports over imports. These have moved very negatively for the eurozone this year and delivered a negative income shock. This week’s move in gas prices has sent eurozone terms of trade towards the worst levels of the year and is a clean euro negative.

Given that we are slightly bullish on the dollar today, we think that the recent EUR/USD correction has stalled in the 1.0350/0400 resistance area and would favour a move back to 1.0275 today.

Elsewhere, some softer-than-expected July Swedish CPI data released today may pour cold water on calls for a massive Riksbank rate hike in September. After a good run in July, we doubt the Swedish krona pushes on too much further against the euro. Chris Turner

GBP: 2Q22 UK GDP data not quite as bad as expected

UK 2Q22 GDP data came in marginally better than expected, where the extra bank holiday in June did not have quite as large a negative impact as analysts thought. The data can probably keep expectations alive that the Bank of England (BoE) will hike 50bp on 15 September. And ever-rising expectations for how much higher the UK energy price cap will be adjusted (and what it means for the peak of UK inflation) will probably mean the BoE stays hawkish all year. EUR/GBP is slightly stronger than we thought and could edge up to the 0.8485 area. But given the challenges faced on the continent, we would not chase EUR/GBP higher. Chris Turner

CEE: Hungary rating review tonight

In the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region, industrial production in Romania, the final estimate of inflation in Poland, Czech National Bank (CNB) minutes, and current account data across the region will close the busy calendar this week. The final CPI reading in Poland is unlikely to differ markedly from the flash estimate of 15.5% year-on-year. However, given that gas prices at the pump continued to decline in the final week of July, we do not rule out a downward revision to 15.4% YoY. In the long term, we expect the summer months to be marked by relatively stable, albeit very high, inflation. Inflationary pressure is projected to re-emerge with the beginning of the heating season in autumn and at the beginning of 2023 due to the upswing in regulated prices.

CNB minutes should reveal the details of the new board’s discussion from the last meeting when the central bank left rates unchanged for the first time since May 2021. In addition to the minutes, the full forecast will be released, including alternative scenarios. Hungary’s rating review by S&P will also be published later today. We do not expect a change in the rating outlook (BBB, stable), but a downgrade is in play, mainly due to energy dependence and uncertain access to EU money.

For today, we do not see many impulses from the regional calendar and the main issue remains the current level of EUR/USD, which is playing positively into the hands of the CEE currencies for now. We see the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint fairly priced, but it is hard to be bullish in this part of the region given the energy risks and the escalating conflict with the European Commission over access to EU money. The koruna shook off another batch of short positions yesterday and we believe EUR/CZK should gradually start to return to higher levels, given that with the region’s most dovish central bank on its back, it is hard to find justification for the current EUR/CZK levels.

Read Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Can BTC ruin the Merge for ETH?

Post Views: 331

Related posts:

FXStreetFX daily: Heatwaves MarketNewsFX daily: US jobs report should not damage the dollar MarketNewsFX daily: Fairly priced FXStreetUS Inflation Preview: Finally signs of peak inflation? Three scenarios for Core CPI and the dollar OrbexSentiment turns sour into Netflix earnings [Video] MarketNewsEuro rebounds ahead of this week’s ECB meeting [Video] FXStreetUK inflation heading for 11%+ readings later this year as food and energy costs rise FXStreetECB preview: A question of balance as Draghi quits
Tags: Forex/CFDs/Cryptos NewsFX dailyGas developments remain worryingHungary rating review tonightRising consumer confidence
30 USD No Deposit Bonus 30 USD No Deposit Bonus 30 USD No Deposit Bonus
Previous Post

USDCAD plummets but 200-day SMA caps downside, GBPJPY battling to keep its feet above trendline

Next Post

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Can BTC ruin the Merge for ETH?

Admin

Admin

Related Posts

ForexNews
Forex/CFDs/Cryptos News

Economic Headwinds in Europe: Exploring the Lower Trading Figures

July 25, 2023
EUR-USD
Forex/CFDs/Cryptos News

EUR/USD Forecast: Turbulent Times Ahead for the Euro

July 17, 2023
FXcurrencies
Forex/CFDs/Cryptos News

Mastering Murrey Math Lines for Trading USD/JPY and USD/CAD

April 19, 2023
oil
Forex/CFDs/Cryptos News

Navigating the Turbulent Waters of Commodity Markets: Higher Prices and Weaker Margins

April 19, 2023
oil
Forex/CFDs/Cryptos News

Energy Prices Spark Inflation Surge in the US: Expert Analysis

April 17, 2023
Gold
Forex/CFDs/Cryptos News

Gold Forecast: Will it Reach $2040 Again and What are the Risks Involved?

September 11, 2023
Load More
Next Post
btc-eth

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Can BTC ruin the Merge for ETH?

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

No Result
View All Result
ADVERTISEMENT
  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
PrimeXBT

PrimeXBT | Step2earn Contest (06.06.22)

May 31, 2022
FBS

FBS | $100 Quick Start Bonus

February 21, 2023
PrimeXBT

PrimeXBT | TradinatoR Contest (27.06.22)

June 6, 2022
xtrade

XTrade | Xmas Season Bonus (26.12.21)

May 24, 2022
CMC Markets

What Is Bitcoin?

52
forexknowledge

What is Forex?

32
Tiomarkets

MT4 vs MT5: What trading platform to choose?

31
CMC Markets

What Is Ethereum?

29
JustMarkets-Grab a Risk-Free $30 Welcome Bonus in Forex Trading

JustMarkets – Grab a Risk-Free $30 Welcome Bonus in Forex Trading

September 25, 2023
Boost Your Profits with OctaFX 50% Bonus Offer

Boost Your Profits with OctaFX 50% Bonus Offer

September 25, 2023
XM Group - How to Claim $30 Forex Welcome Bonus

XM Group – How to Claim $30 Forex Welcome Bonus

September 24, 2023
RoboForex How to Claim $30 as a Forex Welcome Bonus

RoboForex Free Welcome Bonus: How to Claim $30 as a Forex Welcome Bonus

September 22, 2023

Advertisement

exness

fbs

XM



octafx

icmarkets

XM

Recent Posts

  • JustMarkets – Grab a Risk-Free $30 Welcome Bonus in Forex Trading
  • Boost Your Profits with OctaFX 50% Bonus Offer
  • XM Group – How to Claim $30 Forex Welcome Bonus
  • RoboForex Free Welcome Bonus: How to Claim $30 as a Forex Welcome Bonus
  • Winning Gold Trading Strategies

Connect to ReviewBrokers

facebook twitter telegram
liveinternet liveinternet
Review Brokers

ReviewBrokers Information

Address: Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 70000

Contact us:
– Skype: fxvnpro
– Email:

admin@reviewbrokers.com

reviewbrokers.net@gmail.com

Payment methods:
– Webmoney
– Perfect Money
– Paypal
– Skrill
– Neteller
– Bank Wire
– Bitcoin

Categories

  • Affiliate Program (63)
  • Best Promotions (42)
  • Broker Listing (7)
  • Education (95)
  • Expert Advisors (2)
  • Forex Demo Contest (38)
  • Forex Deposit Bonus (239)
  • Forex Live Contest (53)
  • Forex No Deposit Bonus (28)
  • Forex Rebate (Cashback) (64)
  • Forex Trading Indicators (26)
  • Forex Trading Strategies (15)
  • Forex/CFDs/Cryptos News (963)
  • Other Promotions (51)
  • Promotional Content (14)

Disclaimer

Any promotions, reviews, and other information in the website are just for the information purpose only.

There is no invitation or encouragement to invest in the Financial Market such as CFDs, Forex, Binary Options, Indices, Cryptocurrencies and so on. We disclaim liability for any loss resulting from the use of information contained on this website.

The published comments are private opinions or feedback of the users. ReviewBrokers is not responsible for any information on the website.

Recent Posts

  • JustMarkets – Grab a Risk-Free $30 Welcome Bonus in Forex Trading
  • Boost Your Profits with OctaFX 50% Bonus Offer
  • XM Group – How to Claim $30 Forex Welcome Bonus
  • RoboForex Free Welcome Bonus: How to Claim $30 as a Forex Welcome Bonus
  • Winning Gold Trading Strategies
  • Top Forex Brokers with No Deposit Bonuses
  • FBS Global Roadshow: Nurturing Global Trading Communities Worldwide
  • What is a No Deposit Forex Bonus and How to Get It
  • Maximize Profits with Free Forex Trading Bots
  • How to Start Making Money with Forex Trading for Beginners
  • Trading Forex with No Deposit Bonus
  • Orbit Global FX | August Month Offer For Traders

Risk warning

Please be aware of your investment into trading markets which is high risk and not suitable for everyone.

© 2013 - 2023 Review Brokers - Forex Brokers Review - Rebates Service - Expert Advisors Signals - Forex Promotions & News.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
    • Binary Options Brokers
    • Forex Advertising
    • Best Brokers 2022
    • Economic Calendar
    • Contact Us
  • Expert Advisors
    • Expert Advisors Price
  • Forex Brokers
  • Education
    • Forex/CFDs/Cryptos News
    • Promotional Content
  • Forex Promotions
    • Best Promotions
    • Forex No Deposit Bonus
    • Forex Demo Contest
    • Forex Rebate (Cashback)
    • Affiliate Program
    • Forex Deposit Bonus
    • Forex Live Contest
    • Other Promotions

© 2013 - 2023 Review Brokers - Forex Brokers Review - Rebates Service - Expert Advisors Signals - Forex Promotions & News.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In