Daily technical and trading outlook – EUR/USD
Trend daily chart
Rising fm o/s.
21 HR EMA
55 HR EMA
Trend hourly chart
13 HR RSI
14 HR DMI
Choppy consolidation to continue.
1.0350 – May’s low (now res).
1.0298 – 61.8% proj. of 0.9953-1.0278 fm 1.0087.
1.0278 – Jul 21 high.
1.0226 – Mon’s NY low.
1.0206 – Mon’s low.
1.0147 – Last Fri’s low.
EUR/USD – 1.0260.. The single currency caught a bid ahead of Asian open n ‘ratcheted’ higher in choppy fashion due to cross-selling in euro esp vs yen n gbp, however, price later climbed to a 1-week high of 1.0275 in NY b4 easing.
On the bigger picture, despite euro’s LT upmove fm 2017 near 14-year low of 1.0341 to a fresh 3-year peak of 1.2555 in mid-Feb 2018, decline to a near 3-year 1.0637 low (Mar 2020) signals correction has ended. Although euro staged a rally to a near 33-month 1.2349 peak in early Jan 2021, subsequent selloff to 1.1705 (Mar) signals top is made. Euro’s break of 1.1705 n then firm breach below 2020 bottom at 1.0637 in Apr to a 5-year bottom of 1.0350 in mid-May n then break of 2017 trough of 1.0341 to a 20-year low of 0.9953 in mid-Jul suggests price would head twd 0.9860 later next month, reckon 0.9640 should hold. Only a daily close abv 1.0360 confirms temporary low is made, risks 1.0462, abv, 1.0542.
Today, euro’s erratic rise fm 1.0097 to 1.0275 suggests pullback fm 1.02 78 has ended n abv 1.0278 needed to extend upmove fm Jul’s 0.9953 bottom twd 1.0300, ‘bearish divergences’ on hourly indicators should cap euro below 1.0350. Below 1.0226 (NY low) may head back to 1.0206 but only break risks 1.0147/52.
GBPUSD rally targeting 62% Fib retracement level at 1.2320 [Video]
(Duncan Cooper – ACY Securities)
Watch the video for a summary of this week’s news releases, a review of the USD index, and a complete top down analysis of the GBPUSD.
Weekly support at 1.2155, 1.1933, and 1.1760, resistance at 1.2251.
Weekly chart is in a downtrend. Price is rallying back towards the 62% fib retracement level of the last move down.
Daily support at 1.2056, resistance at 1.2332.
Daily chart is in an uptrend and is testing the 1.2251 weekly resistance level. Watching for price to fail at 1.2320 the 62% fib retracement level of the weekly range for a move back down to retest the 1.1760 weekly support level.
Watch the video for a full break down of my analysis on how you could trade this pair to the downside based on the 4 hour chart.