Forex Technical Outlook: Gold (XAUUSD), EURUSD, NZDUSD, USDCHF

Gold: Now we have a bullish engulfing candle buy signal so further gains are expected to 1725/27

(Jason Sen – DayTradeIdeas.co.uk)

Gold Spot broke lower to my next target of 1690/85 with a low for the day exactly at my buy opportunity at 1680/75. Longs worked perfectly on the bounce to my target of 1705/10 for an easy 25-30 point profit.

The bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart is buy signal.

Silver shorts at resistance at 1895/1905 worked perfectly on the slide to 1850 & 1821.

Silver bounced in line with Gold yesterday leaving a double bottom buy signal with a hammer candle for confirmation.

Daily analysis

Gold broke lower as expected to hit my next target & strong support at 1680/75 for profit taking on shorts. Longs here also worked perfectly reaching my target of 1705/10. Now we have a bullish engulfing candle buy signal so further gains are expected to 1725/27 & probably as far as 1735/38.

Downside is expected to be limited with support at 1699/96. However below 1690 risks a retest of the buying opportunity at 1680/75.

Silver held 5 ticks from first resistance at 1895/1905 on the bounce. Resistance is higher today at 1910/20 but shorts are more risky after the double bottom – a break above 1930 is a buy signal targeting 1975/85, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 2010/30.

Holding 1910/20 risks a slide to 1860/50, before a retest of 1820/10.

Ichimoku cloud analysis: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, NZD/USD

(RoboForex Team)

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EUR/USD is still rebounding from Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.0135 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.0385. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.9975. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.9885. To confirm a further uptrend, the price must break the resistance level and fix above 1.0305; two previous attempts have been unsuccessful.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAU/USD is no longer trading within the bearish channel. The instrument is currently moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1710.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1785.00. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1695.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1625.00. To confirm a further uptrend, the price must break the cloud’s upside and fix above 1740.00.

NZD/USD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZD/USD is testing Tenkan-Sen; earlier, it has been moving above the line, meaning the strength of bulls. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Kijun-Sen at 0.6205 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6365. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the downside border of a “5-0” pattern. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6095. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6005.

Daily technical and trading outlook – USD/CHF

(AceTrader Team)

Trend daily chart

Sideways.

Daily indicators

Neutral.

21 HR EMA

0.9687

55 HR EMA

0.9702

Trend hourly chart

Near term down.

Hourly indicators

Turning down.

13 HR RSI

14 HR DMI

-ve

Daily analysis

Consolidation with downside bias.

Resistance

0.9791 – Mon’s high.
0.9739 – Thur’s high.
0.9696 – Tue’s NY high.

Support

0.9655 – Tue’s low.
0.9619 – Jul 04 high (now sup).
0.9594 – Jul 05 low.

USD/CHF – 0.9678.. Despite rebounding fm 0.9696 to 0.9739 in European morning, dlr then met selling n tumbled to 0.9669 in post-ECB trading. The pair then staged a bounce to 0.9725 but only to fall to 0.9665 on usd’s weakness.

On the bigger picture, dlr’s impressive rise fm Jan’s near 6-year bottom at 0.8758 to 0.9472 on the 1st day of Apr due to rally in U.S. yields suggests erratic fall fm 1.0344 (2016 peak) to retrace LT rise fm 2015 record 0.7360 low has ended n despite subsequent 1-year long monthly sideways swings, dlr’s rally abv 0.9472 in Apr to a near 3-year peak of 1.0064 (May) indicates price would head twd 1.0128. Despite subsequent fall to 0.9546 in May n then rally back to 1.0052 in mid-Jun, dlr’s selloff after SNB’s hawkish rate hike n weakness to Jun’s 0.9496 bottom suggests further choppy swings below 1.0064 would continue. Thur’s rally to 0.9886 may head to 0.9930/35, break, 0.9989 later this month.

Today, dlr’s erratic fall fm last Thur’s near 1-month peak at 0.9886 to 0.9655 (Tue) suggests upmove fm Jun’s 2-month trough at 0.9496 has made a top n as price has dropped in post-ECB NY Thur, weakness to 0.9610/15 is envisaged, reckon 0.9594 may hold. Only abv 0.9739 (Thur top) yields 0.9788/91 Mon.