EUR/USD is expected to be traded around the level of 0.99 for most of the day
Looking at EURUSD’s chart, we can see that it has been in a downward trend confirmed after Powel’s last speech. It is traded close to its lowest level of the past years at around 0.994. Today we could expect a technical reaction towards the level of 1 to 1.10 but we do not expect to break it through. It is expected to be traded around the level of 0.99 for most of the day.
Daily recommendations on major – USD/JPY
USD/JPY – 138.82
As dollar’s daily wild swings from last Tuesday’s 1-month high of 137.71 has finally ended on Friday with price initially spiking down to 136.31 Friday after hawkish comments by Fed’s Powell and subsequent gain to 137.74, then intra-day rally would head towards July’s 24-year 139.39 peak, above 139.39 would extend towards 140.00.
On the downside, only a daily close below 138.09 would risk stronger retracement to 137.71/74.
Data to be released later
U.K. market holiday and U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
Weekly technical and trading outlook – USD/CHF
Trend daily chart
21 HR EMA
55 HR EMA
Trend hourly chart
Near term up.
13 HR RSI
14 HR DMI
Possible resumptioon of recent upmove.
0.9740 – Jul 21 high.
0.9716 – 80.9% proj. of 0.9575 fm 0.9575-0.9692.
0.9695 – Intra-day high.
0.9627 – Hourly sup.
0.9604 – Tue’s low.
0.9579 – Last Fri’s low.
USD/CHF – 0.9684.. Although dlr continued its recent winning streak n rose initially to a 1-month high of 0.9692 (Tue), profit taking on usd swiftly knoced price to 0.9604. Dlr later fell to 0.9579 Fri (NY) b4 jumping to 0.9669.
On the bigger picture, dlr’s impressive rise fm Jan’s near 6-year bottom at 0.8758 to 0.9472 on the 1st day of Apr due to rally in U.S. yields suggests erratic fall fm 1.0344 (2016 peak) to retrace LT rise fm 2015 record 0.7360 low has ended n despite subsequent 1-year long monthly sideways swings, dlr’s rally abv 0.9472 in Apr to a near 3-year peak of 1.0064 (May) indicates price would head twd 1.0128. Despite subsequent fall to 0.9372 in early Aug, dlr’s rally back to 0.9599 last week suggests low has been made n abv 0.9718 (50% r) would yield further headway twd 0.9886 in Sep. On the downside, only a daily close below 0.9450 signals recovery has ended instead n risks re-test of 0.9372.
Today, Fri’s rally fm 0.9579 to 0.9669 on Fed Powell’s hawkish comments suggests pullback fm 0.9692 has ended n upmove fm Aug’s 0.9372 low would head to 0.9740, o/bot readings on hourly indicators should cap price at 0.9767/77. Only below 0.9627/30 defers bullishness but 0.9404/08 should remain intact.