Forex Analysis and Forecast: Gold, EUR/AUD, USD/JPY

Where is gold’s turning point? [Video]

(Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA – HYCM)

The latest move by the Federal Reserve has affirmed that tackling inflation is the number one priority of the Federal Reserve, even if it means bringing the US into what’s called a ‘hard’ landing. A hard landing is when growth is hindered so badly by rising interest rates that the economy comes to a sudden and abrupt halt as debt repayments increase, mortgage payments rise, property valuations sink, and stocks slide rapidly lower.

One commodity that is touted as a stagflation hedge is gold, but the surge in real yields and the USD has kept gold, silver, and platinum pressured. Nevertheless, gold can potentially gain in the stagflation environment.

How can seasonals potentially help you with timing your entries? Over the last 25 years, from the end of September to the start of December, gold has shown a mixed seasonal pattern. However, if we look at this pattern from December 24 to February 20 we can see that gold may show a positive outlook at this time of the year.

Major trade risks: If the USD and real yields stay firm then gold can continue to track lower despite its seasonal pattern.

EUR/AUD bounce at the megatrend moving averages

(Nenad Kerkez – Top-XE)

EUR/AUD technical analysis

EUR/AUD Inside outside pattern bounce.
The move is bullish.
Intraday target is 1.4970 zone.
Potential swing target os 1.5230.
The ATR is 132 pips.

MEGATREND MAs: Bullish

D1 chart EUR/AUD

1. Double top valley.

2. Low prior to V-shaped reversal.

3. Bounce above the MAs – IO pattern ™.

4. Intraday target 5. Swing target.

The EUR/AUD is bullish and the price is trying to get the upside momentum so it could continue climbing back up. At this point we can see that the price is trying to reach Q L5 resistance – 1.5015. However it will need more EUR strength vs AUD weakness.

The IO pattern is my proprietary pattern that I teach on my MEGATREND course. It represents the bounce off the MAs with the close above the MAs happening at the same candles. It is validated also by the specific wick which signifies strong buyers. 1.4830-50 is the entry zone. Being a minor cross I recommend trading it with lower risk. The ATR for the last 14 days is 132 which indicates a volatile market. Intraday target is 1.4970 zone while the swing target is 1.5230. Swing target will only be reached if the price proceeds above 1.5015 and EUR fundamentals are stronger than the AUD.

This analysis, the IO trade and all entry signals and targets are a part of the Megatrend system and a trading course. I am maintaining 1 long trade on the EUR/AUD. My Telegram group received a short EUR/AUD signal as a part of the trading method. Watching the daily time frame for this trade, and It has been qualified as an intraday trade with protection of profits by moving SL in profit at the intraday and intraweek levels.

Daily technical and trading outlook – USD/JPY

(AceTrader Team)

Trend daily chart

Sideways

Daily Indicators

Bearish divergences.

21 HR EMA

144.29

55 HR EMA

143.82

Trend hourly chart

Sideways

Hourly Indicators

Easing fm o/bot

13 HR RSI

14 HR DMI

+ve

Daily analysis

Choppy consolidation to continue

Resistance

145.89 – Last Thur’s fresh 24-year high.
145.40 – Last Thur’s Asian high.
144.78 – Mon’s high.

Support

143.80 – Mon’s NY low.
143.28 – Mon’s low.
142.59 – Last Fri’s Aust. high (now sup).

USD/JPY – 144.39.. Dlr continued to ratchet higher on Mon due to continued USD’s strength caused by a near free fall in sterling. Price met renewed buying at 143.28 in Australia n climbed to session highs of 144.78 in NY afternoon.

On the bigger picture, DLR’s spectacular rally fm 2011 historic 75.32 low (Mar) due to co-ordinated yen-selling intervention by G7 central banks to weaken the yen in the aftermath of Japan’s earthquake and tsunami of Mar 2011 to 125.86 (2015) confirms major low has been made. Although price fell back to 99.00 in mid -2016 n swung broadly sideways until 2021, price rallied in tandem with US yields to a 24-year peak of 139.39 in mid-Jul n then strg gain to 145.89 in post-BoJ Thur signals uptrend remains in force. However, dlr’s spectacular plunge to 140. 36 on BoJ’s yen buying intervention signals correction has occured, as long as 138.81 (50% r of 131.74) holds, upside bias remains, abv 144.70, 145.89 again.

Today, dlr’s selloff fm 145.89 to 140.36 on BoJ’s unilateral yen inter- vention since 1998 signals temp. top is made n subsequent rise to 144.78 suggests 1st leg of correction over, only a daily daily close abv 145.00 would yield re-test of 145.89. On the downside, below 143.80 (NY low), 143.28.