(Jing Ren – Orbex)
EUR/USD attempts to break out
The euro recoups losses as traders expect a 50bp interest rate increase by the ECB. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart following a brief consolidation shows that the mood remains cautious at best. A failure to hold onto 0.9900 was a reminder of a strong bearish bias. However, a break above the first resistance at 0.9980 is an encouraging sign. The single currency will need a solid catalyst to propel it above the supply zone at 1.0090 and to make a recovery sustainable. Otherwise, the fresh support at 0.9870 could be at risk.
USD/JPY in limited pullback
The Japanese yen recoups some losses as the Q2 GDP growth beats expectations. The dollar’s rally gained momentum after it lifted July’s high at 139.40. 145.00 is a hurdle and may see some profit-taking after the RSI soared into overbought territory. Past that, the pair could continue towards its 24-year high at 147.50. As sentiment remains extremely bullish, a pullback would be seen as an opportunity to stake in with 142.70 as the closest support. Further down, the psychological level of 140.00 would be the bulls’ stronghold.
USD/CAD hits resistance
The Canadian dollar found support after the BoC raised interest rates by 75 bps as expected. The pair has been hovering under July’s high at 1.3220. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart and a series of higher lows indicate that the buying pressure has been building up. A breakout would remove the lid and attract momentum buyers. Then 1.3400 near its two-year high would be the next target. The price action is testing 1.3060, a key demand zone from the latest accumulation. Its breach could force the bulls to bail out.
XAU/USD: It seems that the bulls are ready to form a cycle wave z
The current structure of the XAUUSD pair hints at a global correction pattern, which takes the form of a cycle triple zigzag.
The last section of the chart shows the structure of the bearish cycle intervening wave x, which looks completed in the form of a primary triple zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ.
Perhaps, after the completion of the cycle wave x, the market turned around and began to move up. That is, the initial part of the cycle wave z is being built now. It may take the form of a primary standard zigzag Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ, as shown in the chart.
The price of gold in the wave z may rise to 1990.57. At that level, it will be at 76.4% of previous actionary wave y of the cycle degree.
In the second view, the downward movement of the pair is expected to continue in the cycle wave x. Wave x is also a triple zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ. However, the final primary wave Ⓩ is still under development.
A downward movement of XAUUSD is expected in the near future. The primary wave Ⓩ may take the form of an intermediate zigzag (A)-(B)-(C).
The final of the correction pattern zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) is possible near 1565.27. At that level, it will be at 76.4% of primary wave Ⓨ.
Only after reaching the specified level, the development of the cycle wave z will begin.
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