(Brian Twomey – Brian’s Investment)
EUR/USD this week to its weekly range trades from 1.0283 to 1.0147 or 136 pips. Today’s range: 1.0285 to 1.0155 or 130 pips. Yet another dead EUR/USD week is upon us. The benefit is day trades all week are located within the parameters of 1.0285 to 1.0155.
Today’s topside EUR/USD for example is located at 1.0258 and 1.0262. Far short to 1.0285. Bottom EUR/USD 1.0154 and 1.0172.
Today’s Inflation trade appears from yesterday afternoon to be a non event as today’s prices lack range ability which means Inflation is released as expected and prices trade in tiny ranges.
The trade strategy is short highs and long bottoms. Same strategy as if today wasn’t Inflation day.
DXY traded highs this week at 106.81 and between 106.52 to 107.01. DXY traded 83 pips this week from 106.81 to 105.97. Sunday’s range 105.47 to 106.52 and 107.01.
US Dollar Index vs S&P 500
DXY traded 71 pips Monday Vs SPX 45 points. Tuesday DXY traded 43 pips to SPX 57 points.
DXY is expected to trade today at 106.45 highs and 105.90 lows Vs SPX 4141 Vs 4107.
Neither DXY nor SPX contains any ability to move today except within the same dull ranges. DXY is the problem and as long as DXY fails to move then SPX and Commodities follows non movements. The currency price is the driver to Stock and Commodity markets. When DXY decides to move then Stocks and commodities trade from dead ranges.
View DXY and SPX trades together as 25 point increments especially SPX.
AUD/USD big break is located at 0.7003 and the same story as last week. AUD/USD is going nowhere fast.
From 12 currency for 24 hour trades, here’s the lineup: GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, GBP/USD.
GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY are fairly standard everyday for 24 hour trades as best trades. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD gain advantage by not only wide ranges but a dead AUD. EUR/CAD is best of the wide range group which informs again, not much is happening today.
EUR/NZD at current 1.6207 is at bottom range 1.6178 and good for a quick 50 pips higher. EUR/AUD at 1.4652 trades dead center to middle range. Longs are located in the vicinity of 1.4562 while GBP/AUD also trades middle range and untouchable. Longs are located around 1.7395.
GBP/JPY at 163.30 is untouchable. Shorts are located from 163.82 or longs from around 162.61. GBP/JPY big break for lower is found today at 162.01.
GBP/USD range from Sunday 1.2174 to 1.2013 held. Watch shorts at 1.2130 and longs around 1.2013.
NZD/USD tops at 0.6313 and 0.6328.
USD/CAD traded 113 pips this week Vs DXY at 86. USD/CAD highs today: 1.2958 Vs DXY 106.45. USD/CAD Lows today 1.2828 Vs DXY lows 105.90. The 2 trades should coincide perfectly. USD/CAD exceeds DXY tanges by about 20 ish pips.
EUR/JPY big break for lower at 136.93 is a good guide for next week. Overall, short JPY cross pairs remains the strategy.
Summer seasonals to cap bear market rally? [Video]
(Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA – HYCM)
The recent string of better-than-feared US economic data has allowed equity markets to price out some of the more severe recession fears. Last week the US ISM manufacturing print beat markets expectations at 52.8. The ISM services print did too printing 56.7 (vs 53.5 expected) and Friday’s headline NFP print was well above expectations at 528K.
However, despite the strong gains from June’s swing low across major indexes, most analysts remain cautious and see this as a ‘bear market rally. So, this is where seasonals can help. Will we see a period of weakness across major indexes between now and October?
Look at the weaker seasonals for the S&P500, DAX, Nasdaq, and FTSE.
Major Trade Risks: If economic data can continue surprising to the upside then there is a risk that the ‘bear market rally’ may turn into a new bull market.