Currency market: FX next week

(Brian Twomey – Brian’s Investment)

EUR/USD weekly target at 0.9829 from 0.9678 achieved highs at 0.9807 for +129 pips. Actual target today must break 0.9817 then 0.9829.

Next week EUR/USD ranges from 0.9716 to 0.9860 and the same old weekly EUR/USD stuck in the same positions.

DXY target at 113.88 slated for next week traded yesterday at 113.95 highs. Next week’s target is located at 114.39. Future targets are located every 44 pips starting from 114.83, 115.27 and 115.72. Count 44 pips below and bottom targets are known.

EUR/USD currently trades as DXY perfect opposite as targets below are located every 44 pips. DXY 115.72 translates as EUR/USD 0.9400. Both today are located at furthest extremes. EUR averages are rising while DXY averages are falling.

JPY Cross Pairs

GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY trade at extreme overbought while nothing special exists to AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY. For GBP/JPY to normalize, target is located at 163.00’s and 162.00’s.

AUD/USD trades massively oversold and targets easily low 0.6400’s to 0.6500’s. NZD/USD exists and trades at the inclination of EUR and GBP.

Both EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD trade deeply overbought and require about 200 pips lower to trade correctly.

GBP/USD targets in the vicinity of 1.1080 and GBP/CHF to 1.0900’s. GBP/CHF trades as leader currency to AUD/CHF, CAD/CHF, EUR/CHF and NZD/CHF as nothing special exists to CHF except GBP/CHF.

EUR/CAD short next week remains the plan although a higher price would ensure a far better trade while GBP/CAD may sit last on the GBP trade rankings due to a horrible position.

USD/JPY trades overbought and ranges from 146.00’s to 148.00’s. USD/CHF trades most overbought to USD/JPY and USD/CAD.

SPX 500 at the 5 year average is located at 3367.25. SPX traded 3400 lows yesterday and dangerously close to the 5 year average. A break of the 5 year average then much lower for SPX.

USD/CNY trades safely above 6.9710. EM currencies trade fairly neutral as nothing exciting exists. USD/HUF, USD/ZAR and USD/MYR stand out as overbought while USD/RON trades neutral. USD/BRL trades neutral.

Neutral to the Bulgarian Lev, USD/BGN

Daily recommendations on major – USD/JPY

(AceTrader Team)

USD/JPY – 147.62

Dollar’s rally on Wed above Sep’s 24-year peak at 145.89 in Asia to 146.38 and subsequent gain on broad-based yen selling to 146.98 in New York suggests long term uptrend would head to 147.30, however, overbought condition would cap price below 1998 peak at 147.64 and yield a much-needed correction.

On the downside, only a daily close below 146.38 would indicate a temporary top is in place and risk stronger retracement towards 145.89, then possibly 145.43.

Data to be released on Friday

Germany wholesale price index, France CPI, EU trade balance.
U.S. import prices, export prices, retail sales, business inventories, University of Michigan sentiment, Canada manufacturing sales and wholesales trade.

Read Rates spark: Keeping up the hawkish pressure

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