(Christina Parthenidou – XM)
AUDUSD established a bullish setup around its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), aiming to recover last week’s rapid downfall.
Specifically, the pair has completed a large green candlestick following a doji candlestick earlier this week, pointing to fizzling selling tendencies. Interestingly, the rebound in the price took place at the lower boundary of a bullish channel, raising optimism that the recovery has just started.
Yet, with the support-turned-resistance trendline capping upside pressures around 0.6965 over the past few days, the current consolidation phase may continue for a bit longer, given the downward slope in the MACD. The RSI is feeding some skepticism too, as it is struggling to overcome its 50-neutral mark.
Should the bulls eliminate downside risks above the 20-day SMA and the 0.7000 round level, the pair could experience a quick rally towards August’s high of 0.7136, unless the 0.7065 barrier cools upside forces beforehand. Then, a successful penetration higher could mark a new higher high somewhere between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.7660-0.6169 down leg at 0.7185 and the key ascending line is drawn from November 15. An extension through June’s peak of 0.7282 would further boost buying confidence.
Alternatively, a flip backward could face limits between the 50- and 200-day SMAs at 0.6870 and 0.6800 respectively. Note that the long-term descending trendline from May 2021 is passing through this zone. Hence, a close lower could squeeze the pair directly to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 0.6740. The 0.6700 psychological number may come into consideration as well before the sell-off stretches to December’s low of 0.6628.
In brief, AUDUSD seems to be preparing for its next bullish phase. A decisive close above 0.7000 could stimulate buying intentions.
